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Polling firm Insider Advantage Georgia seems to think I’m a political pundit and decided to send me the latest poll it conducted in South Carolina, where six republican presidential candidates are fighting to win the Palmetto state and get some momentum going into Florida and Nevada. Since they sent it and I can’t use it at work, I’ve decided to post it here, and drill down into the numbers just for fun.

The first thing to note is that the poll was conducted on Wednesday night (January 11) on behalf of The Augusta Chronicle and The Savannah Morning News. The poll taps 726 likely voters in South Carolina (522 republicans, 20 democrats, and 184 independents) who plan to vote in the Primary. First the whole numbers, which have a +/- margin of error of 4:

• Mitt Romney: 23 percent
• Newt Gingrich: 21 percent
• Rick Santorum: 14 percent
• Ron Paul: 13 percent
• Jon Huntsman: 7 percent
• Rick Perry: 5 percent
• Other: 2 percent
• Undecided/No opinion: 15 percent

Looking at the numbers, and taking the margin of error into account, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are statically tied for first place, followed by Rick Santorum and Ron Paul statistically tied for second, and Rick Perry and Jon Huntsman statistically tied for third.

When we start drilling down into the numbers, it gets interesting. Below we’ll list the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate, based on race, gender, and political identification:

As before, the former Massachusetts governor continues to do well among the 45-64 (34.5 percent) and 65+ (27.8 percent) age groups, but doesn’t fare as well with the lower age groups compared to other candidates. White people seems to like Romney (24.3 percent) while African Americans don’t like him at all. When it comes to gender, Romney has a respectable showing among males (22.2 percent) and females (23.9 percent) as well. Finally, when it comes to political affiliation, Romney scores well with republicans (24.8 percent), but not as well with democrats (16.6 percent) and independents (18.8 percent)

Newt Gingrich does better than Romney in the 18-29 age group (21.3 percent) and almost as well with seniors (31.0 percent). Gingrich doesn’t do quite as well with Whites (20.7), but does surprisingly well with African Americans (50.9 percent) and does well with “Other” (we assume this means Hispanics – 10 percent). Gingrich scores better than Romney with males (25.9 percent) but not with females (16.8 percent). When it comes to political parties, Gingrich gets less support than Romney among republicans (21.4) but does very well with Democrats (27.6) and Independents (20.3)

Comparing Santorum’s and Paul’s numbers, it’s easy to see why Santorum is slightly ahead even though most of his numbers are flat (no greater than 14.5 across all demographics): his greatest strength is that he has more support among republicans than Ron Paul, and with 500+ Republicans taking part in the poll that makes a lot of sense. Paul’s strength is in the 18-29 (19.2) and 30-44 (23.0) age groups; the “other” category of race (44.1 percent) and among those identifying themselves as democrats (34.9) and Independents (29.1). Surprisingly, Newt Gingrich does better than Paul among 18-24 year olds.

Jon Huntsman is stuck well below 15 (single digits in most categories) in every category, though he does better among blacks and independents than Rick Perry. Rick Perry’s decision to jump into South Carolina after Iowa doesn’t seem to have helped him , assuming this polling data is accurate. Their numbers are so low that I won’t bother breaking them down for you.

Here’s the most important numbers to pay attention to: 30.2 percent of 18-24 year olds are undecided, as are “others” (37.9), females (17.0) and Republicans (19.8). Only 1.7 percent said they “wanted someone else.”

So what are the take-aways? Romney may have a real fight on his hands if Gingrich can hold onto these numbers; and Santorum seems to be slipping against Ron Paul – a candidate that by most pundits’ accounts shouldn’t be that close to a social conservative in a state like South Carolina.

Of course, people are fickle this year and these numbers could shift in any conceivable direction. Hopefully future polls from Insider Advantage Georgia will indentify Hispanics by name. “Other is a little too mysterious for me because it could mean anything..

You can check out the poll here. Image Credit: RNC

This entry was posted on January 13, 2012 at 12:21 am and is filed under Politics. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments.

Tags: 2012, January 2012, Jon Huntsman, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Polls, Primary, Republicans, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, South Carolina